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pubs:chaptersar6 [2019/01/03 15:54] jypeter Updated list and added some numbers |
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====== PMIP publications for AR6 ====== | ====== PMIP publications for AR6 ====== | ||
- | Document generated on **Thu Jan 3 16:49:25 2019** | + | Document generated on **Wed Aug 28 11:00:41 2019** |
- | Number of submitted references | + | Number of submitted references: **177** |
+ | |||
+ | Notes: | ||
+ | * References are not sorted, and listed in the order they were submitted to the //PMIP publications for the AR6-WG1 questionnaire// | ||
+ | * There may be some duplicates (same ref submitted by different people) | ||
===== Chapter 1: Framing, context, methods ===== | ===== Chapter 1: Framing, context, methods ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **11** |
- | + | ||
- | * Otto-Bliesner, | + | |
- | * This paper describes the protocols for the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and Last Interglacial (127 ka) Tier 1 simulations, | + | |
* Shi, H., B. Wang, E. R. Cook, J. Liu, and F. Liu, 2018: Asian summer precipitation over the past 544 years reconstructed by merging tree rings and historical documentary records. J. Clim., 31, 7845-7861, https:// | * Shi, H., B. Wang, E. R. Cook, J. Liu, and F. Liu, 2018: Asian summer precipitation over the past 544 years reconstructed by merging tree rings and historical documentary records. J. Clim., 31, 7845-7861, https:// | ||
Line 48: | Line 49: | ||
===== Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system ===== | ===== Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **87** |
* PAGES2k-PMIP3 group: Bothe O, M. Evans, L. Fernández Donado, E. Garcia Bustamante, J. Gergis, F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco, | * PAGES2k-PMIP3 group: Bothe O, M. Evans, L. Fernández Donado, E. Garcia Bustamante, J. Gergis, F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco, | ||
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* Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates, | * Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates, | ||
* Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations | * Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi: | ||
+ | * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Lambert, F., J.-S. Kug, R. J. Park, N. Mahowald, G. Winckler, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. O' | ||
+ | * Shows the polar amplification and potential radiative forcing effect of mineral dust aerosols. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez-Goñi, | ||
+ | * In contrast with periods of relatively stable global ice volume (e.g. present-day interglacial), | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Zorzi, C., Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Anupama, K., Prasad, S., Hanquiez, V., Johnson, J., Giosan, L. (2015) Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, HeinrichStadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition. Quaternary Science Reviews 125, 50-60., doi.org/ | ||
+ | * Insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Rodrigues, T., Hodell, D.A., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * MIS 19, the best orbital analogue to our present interglacial, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Oliveira, D., Desprat, S., Yin, Q., Naughton, F., Trigo, R., Rodrigues, T., Abrantes, F., Sánchez Goñi, M.F. (2018). Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Climate Dynamics 51, 667-686, doi: | ||
+ | * Data-model comparison reveals that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the best orbital analogues to our present interglacial are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. | ||
===== Chapter 3: Human influence on the climate system ===== | ===== Chapter 3: Human influence on the climate system ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **13** |
* Kadow, C, S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch, 2015: Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MIKLIP decadal prediction system. Met. Z, DOI 10.1127/ | * Kadow, C, S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch, 2015: Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MIKLIP decadal prediction system. Met. Z, DOI 10.1127/ | ||
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===== Chapter 4: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information ===== | ===== Chapter 4: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **25** |
* Brierley, C., & Wainer, I. (2018). Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/ | * Brierley, C., & Wainer, I. (2018). Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/ | ||
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* Abram, N. J., H. V. McGregor, J. E. Tierney, M. N. Evans, N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman and the PAGES 2k Consortium (K. Thirumalai, B. Martrat, H. Goosse, S. J. Phipps, E. J. Steig, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, C. P. Saenger, J. Zinke, G. Leduc, J. A. Addison, P. Graham Mortyn, M.-S. Seidenkrantz, | * Abram, N. J., H. V. McGregor, J. E. Tierney, M. N. Evans, N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman and the PAGES 2k Consortium (K. Thirumalai, B. Martrat, H. Goosse, S. J. Phipps, E. J. Steig, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, C. P. Saenger, J. Zinke, G. Leduc, J. A. Addison, P. Graham Mortyn, M.-S. Seidenkrantz, | ||
* Here we use post AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, | * Here we use post AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M. (2013). Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System. The Holocene, Vol 23, Issue 12, 1915-1920., 10.1177/ | ||
+ | * This paper contains an unpdated proxy compilation for South American Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Chandan and Peltier 2018: On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures. Climate of the past, 14, 825-856, https:// | ||
+ | * This paper derives a hierarchy of climate sensitivities, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations. | ||
===== Chapter 5: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks ===== | ===== Chapter 5: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **9** |
* Lambert, F., A. Tagliabue, G. Shaffer, F. Lamy, G. Winckler, L. Farias, L. Gallardo, and R. De Pol-Holz (2015), Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 6014-6023, 10.1002/ | * Lambert, F., A. Tagliabue, G. Shaffer, F. Lamy, G. Winckler, L. Farias, L. Gallardo, and R. De Pol-Holz (2015), Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 6014-6023, 10.1002/ | ||
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* Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences, | * Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences, | ||
* Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected | * Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi: | ||
+ | * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Yamamoto, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., and Oka, A., 2019: Glacial CO2 decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust. Climate of the Past, 15, 981-996., https:// | ||
+ | * This paper reports our numerical simulation which successfully reproduces records of glacial oxygen changes and shows the significance of iron supply from glaciogenic dust. Our model simulations clarify that the enhanced efficiency of the biological pump is responsible for glacial CO2 decline of more than 30 ppm and approximately half of deep-ocean deoxygenation. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Lambert, F., A. Tagliabue, G. Shaffer, F. Lamy, G. Winckler, L. Farias, L. Gallardo, and R. De Pol-Holz (2015), Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 6014-6023, doi: | ||
+ | * Shows the potential for increased dust depositions to reduce global CO2 concentrations | ||
===== Chapter 6: Short-Lived Climate Forcers ===== | ===== Chapter 6: Short-Lived Climate Forcers ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **17** |
* Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi: | * Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi: | ||
Line 468: | Line 511: | ||
* Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Carré, M., Braconnot, P., Leloup, J., Zhou, Y., Harrison, S.P., Corrège, T., Collins, M., Driscoll, R., Elliot, M., McGregor, H.V., Schneider, B., Tudhope, A., 2015. Linkages between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene. Nature Geoscience 9: 168-173. doi: | * Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Carré, M., Braconnot, P., Leloup, J., Zhou, Y., Harrison, S.P., Corrège, T., Collins, M., Driscoll, R., Elliot, M., McGregor, H.V., Schneider, B., Tudhope, A., 2015. Linkages between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene. Nature Geoscience 9: 168-173. doi: | ||
* Shows that ENSO variance was reduced throughout most of the Holocene and that this quiescence is not obvioulsy related to orbital forcing. Climate models are unable to reproduce these observations. | * Shows that ENSO variance was reduced throughout most of the Holocene and that this quiescence is not obvioulsy related to orbital forcing. Climate models are unable to reproduce these observations. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi: | ||
+ | * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Lambert, F., J.-S. Kug, R. J. Park, N. Mahowald, G. Winckler, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. O' | ||
+ | * Shows the polar amplification and potential radiative forcing effect of mineral dust aerosols. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Albani S., Mahowald N.: Paleodust insights onto dust impacts on climate. J. Clim., DOI: 10.1175/ | ||
+ | * Direct impacts of dust on radiation and surface climate, including on the West African monsoon, in different climates. Because dust both scatters and absorbs SW and LW radiation, dust DRE can be both positive or negative depending on the geographical location (therefore a global budget will tend to hide the magnitude of impacts of opposing sign); we propose to use the global average of the module of DRE as a more informative metric when specifically discussing dust impacts. | ||
===== Chapter 7: The Earth' | ===== Chapter 7: The Earth' | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **54** |
* Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations, | * Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations, | ||
Line 608: | Line 663: | ||
* Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates, | * Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates, | ||
* Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations | * Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M. (2013). Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System. The Holocene, Vol 23, Issue 12, 1915-1920., 10.1177/ | ||
+ | * This paper contains an unpdated proxy compilation for South American Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial, | ||
+ | * Paper highlights the important role of freshwater fluxes for the climate, ice sheet and sea-level evolution at the onset of the last Interglacial. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi: | ||
+ | * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Chandan and Peltier 2018: On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures. Climate of the past, 14, 825-856, https:// | ||
+ | * This paper derives a hierarchy of climate sensitivities, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Ibarra, D. E., Oster, J. L., Winnick, M. J., Caves Rugenstein, J. K., Byrne, M. P., & Chamberlain, | ||
+ | * Water cycle and regional moisture energy balance budget change constrained by geologic/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Cuesta-Valero, | ||
+ | * The paper provides with a new long-term past absolute temperature database that can help to constrain model estimates of climate sensitivity. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Yoshimori, M. and Suzuki, M.: The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future, Clim. Past, 15, 1375-1394, https:// | ||
+ | * The paper provides a physical basis of why the mid-Holocene Arctic warming information is useful for the future, i.e., paleo-constraint for the future. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Albani S., Mahowald N.: Paleodust insights onto dust impacts on climate. J. Clim., DOI: 10.1175/ | ||
+ | * Direct impacts of dust on radiation and surface climate, including on the West African monsoon, in different climates. Because dust both scatters and absorbs SW and LW radiation, dust DRE can be both positive or negative depending on the geographical location (therefore a global budget will tend to hide the magnitude of impacts of opposing sign); we propose to use the global average of the module of DRE as a more informative metric when specifically discussing dust impacts. | ||
===== Chapter 8: Water Cycle Changes ===== | ===== Chapter 8: Water Cycle Changes ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **48** |
* Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations, | * Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations, | ||
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* Li, G., S.P. Harrison, P.J. Bartlein, K. Izumi & I.C. Prentice, 2013, Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters:, https:// | * Li, G., S.P. Harrison, P.J. Bartlein, K. Izumi & I.C. Prentice, 2013, Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters:, https:// | ||
* Examines the systematic scaling of precipitation changes in warm and cold climates | * Examines the systematic scaling of precipitation changes in warm and cold climates | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Morrill, C., Meador, E., Livneh, B., Liefert, D.T., Shuman, B.N. 2019. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains. Climate Dynamics. , 10.1007/ | ||
+ | * We used several hydrologic forward models in a form of downscaling to quantitatively compare PMIP3 simulations with lake level records. We found that the severity of mid-Holocene drought in western/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Oster, J. L., Ibarra, D. E., Winnick, M. J., & Maher, K. (2015). Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Geoscience, 8(3), 201., 10.1038/ | ||
+ | * Evaluation of model (PMIP3/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Ibarra, D. E., Oster, J. L., Winnick, M. J., Caves Rugenstein, J. K., Byrne, M. P., & Chamberlain, | ||
+ | * Water cycle and regional moisture energy balance budget change constrained by geologic/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * R D' | ||
+ | * Mechanisms driving monsoon response to midHolocene orbital forcing and rcp8.5 greenhouse-induced global warming scenario are different. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming, the weaker response of the African, Indian, and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid-Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response. This process-oriented study takes an important step toward improving our understanding of monsoon dynamics, quantifying the important role of atmospheric circulation changes in monsoonal precipitation changes by comparing and contrasting past and future climates. Our results highlight that mean surface warming and interhemispheric contrast in surface warming are poor indicators of the monsoonal precipitation response. Rather, the monsoon response is constrained by the integrated energy balance, which accounts for changes at the surface as well as at the top of the atmosphere. This explains why the mid-Holocene does not represent an analogue for future warming. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * A.Kislov. On the interpretation of century-millennium-scale variations of the Black Sea level during the first quarter of the Holocene. | ||
+ | * model-data, and data syntheses | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Kislov A. The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene | ||
+ | * data syntheses : | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Yanko-Hombach, | ||
+ | * model-data, and data syntheses | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Kislov A. 2018 Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level. | ||
+ | * data syntheses | ||
===== Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change ===== | ===== Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **42** |
* Muglia, J., and Schmittner, A. (2015)Glacial Atlantic overturning increased by wind stress in climate modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 42., https:// | * Muglia, J., and Schmittner, A. (2015)Glacial Atlantic overturning increased by wind stress in climate modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 42., https:// | ||
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* Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195-2213, doi: | * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195-2213, doi: | ||
* The paper describes one of the first attempts of a fully coupled transient climate-ice sheet simulation of the Last Interglacial period. The results suggest that the relative timing of sea-level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are important for the interpretation of paleo sea-level records from that period. | * The paper describes one of the first attempts of a fully coupled transient climate-ice sheet simulation of the Last Interglacial period. The results suggest that the relative timing of sea-level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are important for the interpretation of paleo sea-level records from that period. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Ziemen, F.A. et al., 2019: Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations. Clim. Past, 15, 153-168, 10.5194/ | ||
+ | * In previous Heinrich event studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet-climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195-2213, doi: | ||
+ | * First fully coupled ice sheet-climate simulation of the LIG considering sea-level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in a consistent framework. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial, | ||
+ | * Paper highlights the important role of freshwater fluxes for the climate, ice sheet and sea-level evolution at the onset of the last Interglacial. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Chandan and Peltier, 2017: Regional and global climate for the mid-Pliocene using the University of Toronto version of CCSM4 and PlioMIP2 boundary conditions. Climate of the Past, 13, 919-942, https:// | ||
+ | * This paper reports on the first time that an un-tuned coupled-climate model has reproduced with very high fidelity the features of the mid-Pliocene warm period. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Chandan and Peltier 2018: On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures. Climate of the past, 14, 825-856, https:// | ||
+ | * This paper derives a hierarchy of climate sensitivities, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Yoshimori, M. and Suzuki, M.: The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future, Clim. Past, 15, 1375-1394, https:// | ||
+ | * The paper provides a physical basis of why the mid-Holocene Arctic warming information is useful for the future, i.e., paleo-constraint for the future. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * A.Kislov. On the interpretation of century-millennium-scale variations of the Black Sea level during the first quarter of the Holocene. | ||
+ | * model-data, and data syntheses | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Kislov A. The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene | ||
+ | * data syntheses : | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Yanko-Hombach, | ||
+ | * model-data, and data syntheses | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Kislov A. 2018 Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level. | ||
+ | * data syntheses | ||
===== Chapter 10: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change ===== | ===== Chapter 10: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **64** |
* Zhu, J., Z.Y. Liu, E.C. Brady, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, | * Zhu, J., Z.Y. Liu, E.C. Brady, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, | ||
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* Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-14., https:// | * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-14., https:// | ||
* The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon (EAWM) are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM, and snow anomalies over the MPV region can affect EAWM through a positive feedback process. | * The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon (EAWM) are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM, and snow anomalies over the MPV region can affect EAWM through a positive feedback process. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M. (2013). Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System. The Holocene, Vol 23, Issue 12, 1915-1920., 10.1177/ | ||
+ | * This paper contains an unpdated proxy compilation for South American Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Oster, J. L., Ibarra, D. E., Winnick, M. J., & Maher, K. (2015). Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Geoscience, 8(3), 201., 10.1038/ | ||
+ | * Evaluation of model (PMIP3/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Ibarra, D. E., Oster, J. L., Winnick, M. J., Caves Rugenstein, J. K., Byrne, M. P., & Chamberlain, | ||
+ | * Water cycle and regional moisture energy balance budget change constrained by geologic/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * R D' | ||
+ | * Mechanisms driving monsoon response to midHolocene orbital forcing and rcp8.5 greenhouse-induced global warming scenario are different. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming, the weaker response of the African, Indian, and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid-Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response. This process-oriented study takes an important step toward improving our understanding of monsoon dynamics, quantifying the important role of atmospheric circulation changes in monsoonal precipitation changes by comparing and contrasting past and future climates. Our results highlight that mean surface warming and interhemispheric contrast in surface warming are poor indicators of the monsoonal precipitation response. Rather, the monsoon response is constrained by the integrated energy balance, which accounts for changes at the surface as well as at the top of the atmosphere. This explains why the mid-Holocene does not represent an analogue for future warming. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez-Goñi, | ||
+ | * In contrast with periods of relatively stable global ice volume (e.g. present-day interglacial), | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Zorzi, C., Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Anupama, K., Prasad, S., Hanquiez, V., Johnson, J., Giosan, L. (2015) Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, HeinrichStadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition. Quaternary Science Reviews 125, 50-60., doi.org/ | ||
+ | * Insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Rodrigues, T., Hodell, D.A., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * MIS 19, the best orbital analogue to our present interglacial, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Oliveira, D., Desprat, S., Yin, Q., Naughton, F., Trigo, R., Rodrigues, T., Abrantes, F., Sánchez Goñi, M.F. (2018). Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Climate Dynamics 51, 667-686, doi: | ||
+ | * Data-model comparison reveals that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the best orbital analogues to our present interglacial are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * A.Kislov. On the interpretation of century-millennium-scale variations of the Black Sea level during the first quarter of the Holocene. | ||
+ | * model-data, and data syntheses | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Kislov A. The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene | ||
+ | * data syntheses : | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Yanko-Hombach, | ||
+ | * model-data, and data syntheses | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Kislov A. 2018 Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level. | ||
+ | * data syntheses | ||
===== Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate ===== | ===== Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **13** |
* Stevenson, S, J. Overpeck, J. T. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, B. Otto-Bliesner, | * Stevenson, S, J. Overpeck, J. T. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, B. Otto-Bliesner, | ||
Line 1025: | Line 1203: | ||
* We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructionsover the Common Era (CE) and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. | * We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructionsover the Common Era (CE) and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. | ||
- | * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2017. How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?. Climate dynamics, 48(7-8), pp.2557-2568., | + | * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2017. How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?. Climate dynamics, 48(7-8), pp.2557-2568., |
* This work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia(TEA, 30°-50°N, 110°-140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We used physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the winter extremely cold days over over TEA. | * This work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia(TEA, 30°-50°N, 110°-140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We used physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the winter extremely cold days over over TEA. | ||
- | * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. Predictability and prediction of the total number of winter extremely cold days over China. Climate Dynamics, 50(5-6), pp.1769-1784., | + | * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. Predictability and prediction of the total number of winter extremely cold days over China. Climate Dynamics, 50(5-6), pp.1769-1784., |
* The present study uses physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the total number of extremely cold days (NECD) over China.The physical mechanisms by which the autumn Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and tropical- North Pacific SST anomalies affect winter NECD over the Northeast and Main China are discussed. | * The present study uses physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the total number of extremely cold days (NECD) over China.The physical mechanisms by which the autumn Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and tropical- North Pacific SST anomalies affect winter NECD over the Northeast and Main China are discussed. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Morrill, C., Meador, E., Livneh, B., Liefert, D.T., Shuman, B.N. 2019. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains. Climate Dynamics. , 10.1007/ | ||
+ | * We used several hydrologic forward models in a form of downscaling to quantitatively compare PMIP3 simulations with lake level records. We found that the severity of mid-Holocene drought in western/ | ||
===== Chapter 12: Climate change information for regional impacts and risk assessment ===== | ===== Chapter 12: Climate change information for regional impacts and risk assessment ===== | ||
- | Number of selected references | + | Number of selected references: **15** |
* Mares, C., I. Mares, H. Huebener, M. Mihailescu, U. Cubasch, and P. Stanciu, 2014: A Hidden Markov Model Applied to the Daily Spring Precipitation over the Danube Basin. Advances in Meteorology, | * Mares, C., I. Mares, H. Huebener, M. Mihailescu, U. Cubasch, and P. Stanciu, 2014: A Hidden Markov Model Applied to the Daily Spring Precipitation over the Danube Basin. Advances in Meteorology, | ||
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* Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences, | * Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences, | ||
* Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected | * Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Morrill, C., Meador, E., Livneh, B., Liefert, D.T., Shuman, B.N. 2019. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains. Climate Dynamics. , 10.1007/ | ||
+ | * We used several hydrologic forward models in a form of downscaling to quantitatively compare PMIP3 simulations with lake level records. We found that the severity of mid-Holocene drought in western/ | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Oliveira, D., Desprat, S., Yin, Q., Naughton, F., Trigo, R., Rodrigues, T., Abrantes, F., Sánchez Goñi, M.F. (2018). Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Climate Dynamics 51, 667-686, doi: | ||
+ | * Data-model comparison reveals that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the best orbital analogues to our present interglacial are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model. | ||
+ | |||
+ | * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez, | ||
+ | * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. | ||