Focus of the P2FVar Working group

The challenge

To make full use of the available paleoclimate information, with a focus on improving future predictions

Strategy - methodology

Identify and document quantitative relationships across multiple time periods and check consistency with available observations.

Identify whether underlying mechanisms are the same between the time periods (be they past or future).

Identify and implement suitable methodologies to use the information to explore quantitative constraints on future climate change.

Where possible code for methodologies should be fully published to enable participation of others

Targets

Understanding changes across multiple PMIP intervals - especially in climate variability

Exploring the potential implications of theses changes for how we think about (future) climate change

Estimating future climate by using information quantitatively

Openness and Integration

This working group exists as an intergrative activity across the whole of PMIP. The challenge will only be achieved if many people work together. It relies on extending into the analysis space the underlying rationale of PMIP: that more can be learned by coordinating our actions. Not only doesit require output from multiple models for multiple time periods, it also relies on:

Openness about methodologies and derived diagnostics

Data from all intervals needs to be publicly available.

Input from process-based experts to advise on quantitative methodologies