Past2Future: insights from a constantly varying past workshop

University College London (13-17th May 2019)

A small workshop organised on behalf of PMIP4, which we've imaginatively decided to also call “Past2Future: insights from a constantly varying past”. It will be focused on analysing the PMIP4/CMIP6 simulations and providing some preliminary multi-model, multi-period results on IPCC timescales. It will Hosted in London with Chris Brierley as the local organiser.

Background

PMIP4/CMIP6 is using the same models to simulate several past climates, as well as the future. This gives us the possibility of using the past climate responses to provide quantitative insights into the projections: either through exploration and testing of the mechanisms, or as observational constraints. With the availability of the new iteration of past and future simulations, there is a need to focus on the application and expansion of these methods.

Objectives

Accelerate efforts to perform multi-model, multi-period research on CMIP6/PMIP4

Update PMIP3 analyses

Provide a collaborative space for writing timely outputs (esp. given upcoming IPCC deadlines)

Outline of Workshop

Schedule

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
9 am	Logistics for analyses	Group work	Group analyses	Overall thoughts
10 am	Welcome	Potential issues	Devise initial tests	Group analyses	Discussion
Coffee	Coffee	Coffee	Coffee	Coffee
11 am	Wider context	Poster Session	Tackle proof of concept analysis	Finish off analyses	Future actions
Lunch	Lunch	Lunch	Lunch	Lunch
2 pm	Assets and tools	Sharing of ideas for potential analyses	Time off	Creation of group presentations	Say goodbyes
Coffee	Coffee	Time off	Coffee
3:30-5:30 pm	Possible research topics	Coalesce into groups for targeted analyses	Time off	Presentations of initial results

Presentation sessions with UK timings

Wider Context

11:00 - PMIP4 and its current status

11:30 - IPCC AR6, and other palaeoclimate initiatives (Darrell Kaufman)

Assets and tools

1:30pm - Available data (Sandy Harrison)

2:00 - Statistical approaches (James Annan)

2:30 - Long transient runs (Pascale Braconnot)

Possible research topics

3:30pm - Climate Sensitivity (Jules Hargreaves)

3:50 - Monsoons (Pedro Dias)

4:10 - Variability (Kira Rehfeld)

4:30 - AMOC (David Thornalley)

~5:00 - ENSO (Sam Stevenson)

Logistics of analyses

Outstanding methodological issues (e.g. seasonality)

Introduction to UCL cluster

porting of non-CMIP6/CMORized data onto it

Logistics

Workshop dates/time

10am Monday 13th May 2019 - 2pm Friday 17th May 2019

Venue

The workshop will take place in the Pearson Building at University College London. The Pearson Building is accessed from just inside UCL's main gates off Gower St. There are maps and public transport directions, and the postcode to feed into your phone is WC1E 6BT. We will mainly be in Room G07, but also have booked the teaching cluster (Room 110A).

Accommodation

London has a silly quantity of hotels. The Wesley hotel is probably the one which is the shortest walk from the workshop venue. There are several budget hotels as part of the Imperial Group that are in Bloomsbury (but please do check their reviews) and some hostels nearby. The public transport system in London is pretty effective, and you will find cheaper accommodation slightly further out (say through AirBnB). London travel is cheapest through an “Oyster Card”, which you can buy in advance from this link. You probably want to stay in Zones 1-2: the closest tube stops to UCL are Warren St and Euston Square.

Costs

There is no registration fee and lunches during the workshop will be provided. Travel and accommodation to London is expensive enough. There will be a workshop dinner on the Tuesday evening in a nearby curry house, whilst you will need for pay this yourself it'll be fairly cheap.

Abstract/Proposal submission

This is a small workshop, with at most 30 attendees, so we would like you to apply to attend. The workshop will have poster presentations combined with group-working. This application will therefore have two parts to it (a) an abstract of the research you'd like to present on your poster and (b) a couple of sentences about the questions you'd like to address during an initial analysis of the PMIP4 ensemble. These abstracts and proposals should be submitted by 1st February via an email to Chris Brierley.

Queries

Please email Chris Brierley for further details

Attendees

Institution	Country
Chris Brierley	University College London	UK
Jules Hargreaves	BlueSkiesResearch	Yorkshire
Pascale Braconnot	LSCE	France
Sandy Harrison	Reading	UK
Julien Cretat	LSCE	FR
Nav Sagoo	Stockholm	SE
Martin Renoult	Stockholm	SE
Xiaoxu Shi	AWI	DE
James Annan	BlueSkiesResearch	Yorkshire
Juan Lora	Yale	US
Johann Jungclaus	MPI	DE
Darrell Kaufman	N. Arizona Uni.	US
Roberta D'Agostino	MPI	DE
Kira Rehfeld	Heidelberg	DE
Raphael Hebert	AWI	DE
Pedro Dias	Sao Paulo	BR
Bruno Turcq	IRD	FR
Marcus Lofverstrom	U. Arizona	US
Andrew Schurer	Edinburgh	UK
Celia Martin Puertes	Royal Holloway	UK
David Thornalley	UCL	UK
Manuel Arroyo-Kalin	UCL	UK
Peter Spooner	UCL	UK
Damian Oyarzun	UCL	UK
Anni Zhao	UCL	UK
Basil Davis	Lausanne	CH
Pearse Buchanan	Liverpool	UK
Charlie Williams	Reading	UK