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jypeter
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jypeter Updated the list
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 ====== PMIP publications for AR6 ====== ====== PMIP publications for AR6 ======
  
-Document generated on **Thu Jan  3 17:40:50 2019**+Document generated on **Wed Aug 28 11:00:41 2019**
  
-Number of submitted references: **150**+Number of submitted references: **177**
  
 Notes: Notes:
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 ===== Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system ===== ===== Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system =====
  
-Number of selected references: **79**+Number of selected references: **87**
  
   * PAGES2k-PMIP3 group: Bothe O, M. Evans, L. Fernández Donado, E. Garcia Bustamante, J. Gergis, F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco,​ H. Goosse , G. Hegerl, A. Hind, J. Jungclaus, D. Kaufman, F. Lehner, N. McKay, A. Moberg, C. C. Raible, A. Schurer, F. Shi, J. Smerdon, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E. Warren, M. Widmann, P. Yiou, E. Zorita, 2015. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Climate of the Past, 11, 1673-1699, 2015 www.clim-past.net/​11/​1673/​2015/​ , https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-11-1673-2015   * PAGES2k-PMIP3 group: Bothe O, M. Evans, L. Fernández Donado, E. Garcia Bustamante, J. Gergis, F. J. Gonzalez-Rouco,​ H. Goosse , G. Hegerl, A. Hind, J. Jungclaus, D. Kaufman, F. Lehner, N. McKay, A. Moberg, C. C. Raible, A. Schurer, F. Shi, J. Smerdon, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E. Warren, M. Widmann, P. Yiou, E. Zorita, 2015. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Climate of the Past, 11, 1673-1699, 2015 www.clim-past.net/​11/​1673/​2015/​ , https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-11-1673-2015
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   * Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates,​ Geophysical Research Letters, https://​dow.org/​10.1002/​grl.50350 ​   * Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates,​ Geophysical Research Letters, https://​dow.org/​10.1002/​grl.50350 ​
     * Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations     * Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations
 +
 +  * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi:​10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7,​ 2018., 10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7
 +    * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM
 +
 +  * Lambert, F., J.-S. Kug, R. J. Park, N. Mahowald, G. Winckler, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. O'​ishi,​ T. Takemura, and J.-H. Lee (2013), The role of mineral-dust aerosols in polar temperature amplification,​ Nat. Clim. Chang., 3(5), 487-491, doi:​10.1038/​nclimate1785,​ 10.1038/​nclimate1785
 +    * Shows the polar amplification and potential radiative forcing effect of mineral dust aerosols. ​
 +
 +  * Sánchez-Goñi,​ M.F., Bard, E., Landais, A., Rossignol, L., d'​Errico,​ F. (2013). Air-sea temperature decoupling in Western Europe during the last interglacial/​glacial transition. Nature Geoscience 6 , 837-841, DOI : 10.1038/​ngeo1924
 +    * In contrast with periods of relatively stable global ice volume (e.g. present-day interglacial),​ periods of ice-sheet growth are marked by a decoupling between eastern North Atlantic warming and European cooling. This configuration allows a northward shift of the westerlies bringing humidity to the high northern latitudes.
 +
 +  * Zorzi, C., Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Anupama, K., Prasad, S., Hanquiez, V., Johnson, J., Giosan, L. (2015) Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, HeinrichStadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition. Quaternary Science Reviews 125, 50-60., doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quascirev.2015.06.009
 +    * Insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation,​ but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric teleconnections to remote phenomena in the North Atlantic (e.g. amount of sea-ice or iceberg discharges),​ Eurasia or the Indian Ocean.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Rodrigues, T., Hodell, D.A., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Alonso-Garcia,​ M., Hernandez-Almeida,​ I., Desprat, S., Ferretti, P. (2016) Tropically-driven climate shifts in southwestern Europe during MIS 19, a low excentricity interglacial. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 448, 81-93., http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​j.epsl.2016.05.018
 +    * MIS 19, the best orbital analogue to our present interglacial,​ is marked by low latitude-driven 5000-yr cycles of drying and cooling in the western Mediterranean region, along with warmth in the subtropical gyre related to the fourth harmonic of precession. The discrepancy between the dominant cyclicity observed during MIS1, 2500-yr, and that of MIS19, 5000-yr, challenges the similar duration of the Holocene and MIS19c interglacials under natural boundary conditions.
 +
 +  * Oliveira, D., Desprat, S., Yin, Q., Naughton, F., Trigo, R., Rodrigues, T., Abrantes, F., Sánchez Goñi, M.F. (2018). Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Climate Dynamics 51, 667-686, doi:​10.1007/​s00382-017-3948-7
 +    * Data-model comparison reveals that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the best orbital analogues to our present interglacial are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Rodrigues, T., Alonso-Garcia,​ M., Rodriguez-Tovar,​ F.J.,  Dorador, J., Desprat, S. (2019). Pronounced northward shift of the westerlies during MIS 17 leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 511, 117-129., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.epsl.2019.01.032.
 +    * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Harrison, S.P. and ACER contributors (2017). The ACER pollen and charcoal database : a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period. Earth System Science Data, 9, 679-695., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​essd-9-679-2017
 +    * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century.
  
  
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 ===== Chapter 4: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information ===== ===== Chapter 4: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information =====
  
-Number of selected references: **22**+Number of selected references: **25**
  
   * Brierley, C., & Wainer, I. (2018). Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/​PMIP3. Climate of the Past, 14(10), 1377-1390., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-14-1377-2018   * Brierley, C., & Wainer, I. (2018). Inter-annual variability in the tropical Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum into future climate projections simulated by CMIP5/​PMIP3. Climate of the Past, 14(10), 1377-1390., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-14-1377-2018
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   * Abram, N. J., H. V. McGregor, J. E. Tierney, M. N. Evans, N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman and the PAGES 2k Consortium (K. Thirumalai, B. Martrat, H. Goosse, S. J. Phipps, E. J. Steig, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, C. P. Saenger, J. Zinke, G. Leduc, J. A. Addison, P. Graham Mortyn, M.-S. Seidenkrantz,​ M.-A. Sicre, K. Selvaraj, H. L. Filipsson, R. Neukom, J. Gergis, M. A. J. Curran and L. von Gunten): Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents, Nature, 536, 411-418, doi:​10.1038/​nature19082,​ 2016., 10.1038/​nature19082   * Abram, N. J., H. V. McGregor, J. E. Tierney, M. N. Evans, N. P. McKay, D. S. Kaufman and the PAGES 2k Consortium (K. Thirumalai, B. Martrat, H. Goosse, S. J. Phipps, E. J. Steig, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, C. P. Saenger, J. Zinke, G. Leduc, J. A. Addison, P. Graham Mortyn, M.-S. Seidenkrantz,​ M.-A. Sicre, K. Selvaraj, H. L. Filipsson, R. Neukom, J. Gergis, M. A. J. Curran and L. von Gunten): Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents, Nature, 536, 411-418, doi:​10.1038/​nature19082,​ 2016., 10.1038/​nature19082
     * Here we use post AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions,​ but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.     * Here we use post AD 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions,​ but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
 +
 +  * Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M. (2013). Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System. The Holocene, Vol 23, Issue 12, 1915-1920., 10.1177/​0959683613505336
 +    * This paper contains an unpdated proxy compilation for South American Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene,​ and also a data-model comparison using the PMIP3 models.
 +
 +  * Chandan and Peltier 2018: On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures. Climate of the past, 14, 825-856, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-14-825-2018
 +    * This paper derives a hierarchy of climate sensitivities,​ applicable on various timescales, from modelling studies of the future-like warm period of the mid-Pliocene.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Rodrigues, T., Alonso-Garcia,​ M., Rodriguez-Tovar,​ F.J.,  Dorador, J., Desprat, S. (2019). Pronounced northward shift of the westerlies during MIS 17 leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 511, 117-129., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.epsl.2019.01.032.
 +    * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations.
  
  
 ===== Chapter 5: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks ===== ===== Chapter 5: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks =====
  
-Number of selected references: **6**+Number of selected references: **9**
  
   * Lambert, F., A. Tagliabue, G. Shaffer, F. Lamy, G. Winckler, L. Farias, L. Gallardo, and R. De Pol-Holz (2015), Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 6014-6023, 10.1002/​2015GL064250   * Lambert, F., A. Tagliabue, G. Shaffer, F. Lamy, G. Winckler, L. Farias, L. Gallardo, and R. De Pol-Holz (2015), Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 6014-6023, 10.1002/​2015GL064250
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   * Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences,​ 11, 6017-6027. doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014,​ doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014a   * Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences,​ 11, 6017-6027. doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014,​ doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014a
     * Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected ​ fire regimes through altering productivity and hence fuel loads. By analogy, both rising CO2 and climate must be considered as risk factors for wildfire.     * Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected ​ fire regimes through altering productivity and hence fuel loads. By analogy, both rising CO2 and climate must be considered as risk factors for wildfire.
 +
 +  * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi:​10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7,​ 2018., 10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7
 +    * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM
 +
 +  * Yamamoto, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., and Oka, A., 2019: Glacial CO2 decrease and deep-water deoxygenation by iron fertilization from glaciogenic dust. Climate of the Past, 15, 981-996., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-15-981-2019
 +    * This paper reports our numerical simulation which successfully reproduces records of glacial oxygen changes and shows the significance of iron supply from glaciogenic dust. Our model simulations clarify that the enhanced efficiency of the biological pump is responsible for glacial CO2 decline of more than 30 ppm and approximately half of deep-ocean deoxygenation. ​
 +
 +  * Lambert, F., A. Tagliabue, G. Shaffer, F. Lamy, G. Winckler, L. Farias, L. Gallardo, and R. De Pol-Holz (2015), Dust fluxes and iron fertilization in Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(14), 6014-6023, doi:​10.1002/​2015GL064250,​ 10.1002/​2015GL064250
 +    * Shows the potential for increased dust depositions to reduce global CO2 concentrations
  
  
 ===== Chapter 6: Short-Lived Climate Forcers ===== ===== Chapter 6: Short-Lived Climate Forcers =====
  
-Number of selected references: **13**+Number of selected references: **17**
  
   * Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi:​10.5194/​gmd-9-2701-2016,​ 2016, 10.5194/​gmd-9-2701-2016,​ 2016   * Zanchettin, D., Khodri, M., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Schmidt, A., Gerber, E. P., Hegerl, G., Robock, A., Pausata, F. S. R., Ball, W. T., Bauer, S. E., Bekki, S., Dhomse, S. S., LeGrande, A. N., Mann, G. W., Marshall, L., Mills, M., Marchand, M., Niemeier, U., Poulain, V., Rozanov, E., Rubino, A., Stenke, A., Tsigaridis, K., and Tummon, F.: The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi:​10.5194/​gmd-9-2701-2016,​ 2016, 10.5194/​gmd-9-2701-2016,​ 2016
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   * Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Carré, M., Braconnot, P., Leloup, J., Zhou, Y., Harrison, S.P., Corrège, T., Collins, M., Driscoll, R., Elliot, M., McGregor, H.V., Schneider, B., Tudhope, A., 2015. Linkages between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene. Nature Geoscience 9: 168-173. doi:​10.1038/​ngeo2608,​ doi:​10.1038/​ngeo2608   * Emile-Geay, J., Cobb, K.M., Carré, M., Braconnot, P., Leloup, J., Zhou, Y., Harrison, S.P., Corrège, T., Collins, M., Driscoll, R., Elliot, M., McGregor, H.V., Schneider, B., Tudhope, A., 2015. Linkages between tropical Pacific seasonal, interannual and orbital variability during the Holocene. Nature Geoscience 9: 168-173. doi:​10.1038/​ngeo2608,​ doi:​10.1038/​ngeo2608
     * Shows that ENSO variance was reduced throughout most of the Holocene and that this quiescence is not obvioulsy related to orbital forcing. Climate models are unable to reproduce these observations.     * Shows that ENSO variance was reduced throughout most of the Holocene and that this quiescence is not obvioulsy related to orbital forcing. Climate models are unable to reproduce these observations.
 +
 +  * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi:​10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7,​ 2018., 10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7
 +    * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM
 +
 +  * Lambert, F., J.-S. Kug, R. J. Park, N. Mahowald, G. Winckler, A. Abe-Ouchi, R. O'​ishi,​ T. Takemura, and J.-H. Lee (2013), The role of mineral-dust aerosols in polar temperature amplification,​ Nat. Clim. Chang., 3(5), 487-491, doi:​10.1038/​nclimate1785,​ 10.1038/​nclimate1785
 +    * Shows the polar amplification and potential radiative forcing effect of mineral dust aerosols. ​
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Harrison, S.P. and ACER contributors (2017). The ACER pollen and charcoal database : a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period. Earth System Science Data, 9, 679-695., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​essd-9-679-2017
 +    * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century.
 +
 +  * Albani S., Mahowald N.: Paleodust insights onto dust impacts on climate. J. Clim., DOI: 10.1175/​JCLI-D-18-0742.1,​ in press., 10.1175/​JCLI-D-18-0742.1
 +    * Direct impacts of dust on radiation and surface climate, including on the West African monsoon, in different climates. Because dust both scatters and absorbs SW and LW radiation, dust DRE can be both positive or negative depending on the geographical location (therefore a global budget will tend to hide the magnitude of impacts of opposing sign); we propose to use the global average of the module of DRE as a more informative metric when specifically discussing dust impacts.
  
  
 ===== Chapter 7: The Earth'​s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity ===== ===== Chapter 7: The Earth'​s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity =====
  
-Number of selected references: **45**+Number of selected references: **54**
  
   * Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations,​ Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373(2054), pii: 20140424., https://​doi.org/​10.1098/​rsta.2014.0424   * Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations,​ Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373(2054), pii: 20140424., https://​doi.org/​10.1098/​rsta.2014.0424
Line 609: Line 663:
   * Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates,​ Geophysical Research Letters, https://​dow.org/​10.1002/​grl.50350 ​   * Izumi, K., P.J. Bartlein and S.P. Harrison, 2013, Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates,​ Geophysical Research Letters, https://​dow.org/​10.1002/​grl.50350 ​
     * Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations     * Demonstrates that there are consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates using paleo simulations and reconstructions along with future simulations
 +
 +  * Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M. (2013). Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System. The Holocene, Vol 23, Issue 12, 1915-1920., 10.1177/​0959683613505336
 +    * This paper contains an unpdated proxy compilation for South American Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene,​ and also a data-model comparison using the PMIP3 models.
 +
 +  * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial,​ Clim. Past, 12, 1721-1737, doi:​10.5194/​cp-12-1721-2016,​ 2016., 10.5194/​cp-12-1721-2016
 +    * Paper highlights the important role of freshwater fluxes for the climate, ice sheet and sea-level evolution at the onset of the last Interglacial.
 +
 +  * Albani S., Balkanski Y., Mahowald N., Winckler G., Maggi V., Delmonte B.: Aerosol-climate interactions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 99-114, doi:​10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7,​ 2018., 10.1007/​s40641-018-0100-7
 +    * Recent invited review on aerosol-climate interaction during the LGM
 +
 +  * Chandan and Peltier 2018: On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures. Climate of the past, 14, 825-856, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-14-825-2018
 +    * This paper derives a hierarchy of climate sensitivities,​ applicable on various timescales, from modelling studies of the future-like warm period of the mid-Pliocene.
 +
 +  * Ibarra, D. E., Oster, J. L., Winnick, M. J., Caves Rugenstein, J. K., Byrne, M. P., & Chamberlain,​ C. P. (2018). Warm and cold wet states in the western United States during the Pliocene-Pleistocene. Geology, 46(4), 355-358., 10.1130/​G39962.1
 +    * Water cycle and regional moisture energy balance budget change constrained by geologic/​paleoclimate data and PMIP models in semi-arid region.
 +
 +  * Cuesta-Valero,​ F. J., García-García,​ A., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., & Jaume-Santero,​ F. (2019). Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations. Climate of the Past, 15(3), 1099-1111, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-15-1099-2019
 +    * The paper provides with a new long-term past absolute temperature database that can help to constrain model estimates of climate sensitivity.
 +
 +  * Yoshimori, M. and Suzuki, M.: The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future, Clim. Past, 15, 1375-1394, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-15-1375-2019,​ 2019., 10.5194/​cp-15-1375-2019
 +    * The paper provides a physical basis of why the mid-Holocene Arctic warming information is useful for the future, i.e., paleo-constraint for the future.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Rodrigues, T., Alonso-Garcia,​ M., Rodriguez-Tovar,​ F.J.,  Dorador, J., Desprat, S. (2019). Pronounced northward shift of the westerlies during MIS 17 leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 511, 117-129., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.epsl.2019.01.032.
 +    * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations.
 +
 +  * Albani S., Mahowald N.: Paleodust insights onto dust impacts on climate. J. Clim., DOI: 10.1175/​JCLI-D-18-0742.1,​ in press., 10.1175/​JCLI-D-18-0742.1
 +    * Direct impacts of dust on radiation and surface climate, including on the West African monsoon, in different climates. Because dust both scatters and absorbs SW and LW radiation, dust DRE can be both positive or negative depending on the geographical location (therefore a global budget will tend to hide the magnitude of impacts of opposing sign); we propose to use the global average of the module of DRE as a more informative metric when specifically discussing dust impacts.
  
  
 ===== Chapter 8: Water Cycle Changes ===== ===== Chapter 8: Water Cycle Changes =====
  
-Number of selected references: **40**+Number of selected references: **48**
  
   * Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations,​ Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373(2054), pii: 20140424., https://​doi.org/​10.1098/​rsta.2014.0424   * Braconnot, P., and M. Kageyama (2015), Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations,​ Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373(2054), pii: 20140424., https://​doi.org/​10.1098/​rsta.2014.0424
Line 734: Line 815:
   * Li, G., S.P. Harrison, P.J. Bartlein, K. Izumi & I.C. Prentice, 2013, Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters:, https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​grl.50730 ​   * Li, G., S.P. Harrison, P.J. Bartlein, K. Izumi & I.C. Prentice, 2013, Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters:, https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​grl.50730 ​
     * Examines the systematic scaling of precipitation changes in warm and cold climates     * Examines the systematic scaling of precipitation changes in warm and cold climates
 +
 +  * Morrill, C., Meador, E., Livneh, B., Liefert, D.T., Shuman, B.N. 2019. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains. Climate Dynamics. , 10.1007/​s00382-019-04633-3
 +    * We used several hydrologic forward models in a form of downscaling to quantitatively compare PMIP3 simulations with lake level records. We found that the severity of mid-Holocene drought in western/​central North America about 6,000 years ago is consistent with local winter precipitation reductions of up to 50%, and that PMIP3 models fail to reproduce the severity of this drought.
 +
 +  * Oster, J. L., Ibarra, D. E., Winnick, M. J., & Maher, K. (2015). Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Geoscience, 8(3), 201., 10.1038/​ngeo2365
 +    * Evaluation of model (PMIP3/​PMIP2) performance using paleoclimate data, constraints on precipitation change caused be climate forcing and P-E changes observed using paleoclimate records.
 +
 +  * Ibarra, D. E., Oster, J. L., Winnick, M. J., Caves Rugenstein, J. K., Byrne, M. P., & Chamberlain,​ C. P. (2018). Warm and cold wet states in the western United States during the Pliocene-Pleistocene. Geology, 46(4), 355-358., 10.1130/​G39962.1
 +    * Water cycle and regional moisture energy balance budget change constrained by geologic/​paleoclimate data and PMIP models in semi-arid region.
 +
 +  * R D'​Agostino,​ J Bader, S Bordoni, D Ferreira, J Jungclaus (2019): Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Response to Mid-Holocene Orbital Forcing and Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters 46 (3), 1591-1601, ​ https://​doi.org/​10.1029/​2018GL081589
 +    * Mechanisms driving monsoon response to midHolocene orbital forcing and rcp8.5 greenhouse-induced global warming scenario are different. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming, the weaker response of the African, Indian, and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid-Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response. This process-oriented study takes an important step toward improving our understanding of monsoon dynamics, quantifying the important role of atmospheric circulation changes in monsoonal precipitation changes by comparing and contrasting past and future climates. Our results highlight that mean surface warming and interhemispheric contrast in surface warming are poor indicators of the monsoonal precipitation response. Rather, the monsoon response is constrained by the integrated energy balance, which accounts for changes at the surface as well as at the top of the atmosphere. This explains why the mid-Holocene does not represent an analogue for future warming.
 +
 +  * A.Kislov. On the interpretation of century-millennium-scale variations of the Black Sea level during the first quarter of the Holocene. ​ Quaternary International. Volume 465, Part A, 2018, Pages 99-104., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2016.09.008
 +    *  model-data, and data syntheses
 +
 +  * Kislov A. The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene ​ Quaternary International,​ 2016, vol. 409,  39-43 , https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2015.07.026
 +    *  data syntheses :
 +
 +  * Yanko-Hombach,​ V., Kislov, A., Late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level dynamics in the Caspian and Black Seas: Data synthesis and Paradoxical interpretations,​ Quaternary International (2017) , https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2017.11.030
 +    * model-data, and data syntheses
 +
 +  * Kislov A. 2018 Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level. ​ Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 43, No 10, 679-685 ​ , 10.3103/​S1068373918100072
 +    * data syntheses
  
  
 ===== Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change ===== ===== Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere, and Sea Level Change =====
  
-Number of selected references: **32**+Number of selected references: **42**
  
   * Muglia, J., and Schmittner, A. (2015)Glacial Atlantic overturning increased by wind stress in climate modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 42., https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​2015GL064583   * Muglia, J., and Schmittner, A. (2015)Glacial Atlantic overturning increased by wind stress in climate modelsGeophysical Research Letters, 42., https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​2015GL064583
Line 835: Line 940:
   * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195-2213, doi:​10.5194/​cp-12-2195-2016,​ 2016., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-12-2195-2016   * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195-2213, doi:​10.5194/​cp-12-2195-2016,​ 2016., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-12-2195-2016
     * The paper describes one of the first attempts of a fully coupled transient climate-ice sheet simulation of the Last Interglacial period. The results suggest that the relative timing of sea-level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are important for the interpretation of paleo sea-level records from that period. ​     * The paper describes one of the first attempts of a fully coupled transient climate-ice sheet simulation of the Last Interglacial period. The results suggest that the relative timing of sea-level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are important for the interpretation of paleo sea-level records from that period. ​
 +
 +  * Ziemen, F.A. et al., 2019: Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations. Clim. Past, 15, 153-168, 10.5194/​cp-15-153-2019
 +    * In previous Heinrich event studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet-climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects. ​
 +
 +  * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model, Clim. Past, 12, 2195-2213, doi:​10.5194/​cp-12-2195-2016,​ 2016., 10.5194/​cp-12-2195-2016
 +    * First fully coupled ice sheet-climate simulation of the LIG considering sea-level contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in a consistent framework.
 +
 +  * Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Loutre, M. F., and Fichefet, T.: Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial,​ Clim. Past, 12, 1721-1737, doi:​10.5194/​cp-12-1721-2016,​ 2016., 10.5194/​cp-12-1721-2016
 +    * Paper highlights the important role of freshwater fluxes for the climate, ice sheet and sea-level evolution at the onset of the last Interglacial.
 +
 +  * Chandan and Peltier, 2017: Regional and global climate for the mid-Pliocene using the University of Toronto version of CCSM4 and PlioMIP2 boundary conditions. Climate of the Past, 13, 919-942, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-13-919-2017
 +    * This paper reports on the first time that an un-tuned coupled-climate model has reproduced with very high fidelity the features of the mid-Pliocene warm period.
 +
 +  * Chandan and Peltier 2018: On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures. Climate of the past, 14, 825-856, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-14-825-2018
 +    * This paper derives a hierarchy of climate sensitivities,​ applicable on various timescales, from modelling studies of the future-like warm period of the mid-Pliocene.
 +
 +  * Yoshimori, M. and Suzuki, M.: The relevance of mid-Holocene Arctic warming to the future, Clim. Past, 15, 1375-1394, https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​cp-15-1375-2019,​ 2019., 10.5194/​cp-15-1375-2019
 +    * The paper provides a physical basis of why the mid-Holocene Arctic warming information is useful for the future, i.e., paleo-constraint for the future.
 +
 +  * A.Kislov. On the interpretation of century-millennium-scale variations of the Black Sea level during the first quarter of the Holocene. ​ Quaternary International. Volume 465, Part A, 2018, Pages 99-104., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2016.09.008
 +    *  model-data, and data syntheses
 +
 +  * Kislov A. The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene ​ Quaternary International,​ 2016, vol. 409,  39-43 , https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2015.07.026
 +    *  data syntheses :
 +
 +  * Yanko-Hombach,​ V., Kislov, A., Late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level dynamics in the Caspian and Black Seas: Data synthesis and Paradoxical interpretations,​ Quaternary International (2017) , https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2017.11.030
 +    * model-data, and data syntheses
 +
 +  * Kislov A. 2018 Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level. ​ Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 43, No 10, 679-685 ​ , 10.3103/​S1068373918100072
 +    * data syntheses
  
  
 ===== Chapter 10: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change ===== ===== Chapter 10: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change =====
  
-Number of selected references: **50**+Number of selected references: **64**
  
   * Zhu, J., Z.Y. Liu, E.C. Brady, B.L. Otto-Bliesner,​ S.A. Marcott, J. Zhang, A. Wang, D. Noone, R. Tomas, J. Nusbaumer, T. Wong, A. Jahn, and C. Tabor, 2017: Reduced ENSO variability at the LGM revealed by an isotope-enabled Earth system model. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 6984-6992., n/a   * Zhu, J., Z.Y. Liu, E.C. Brady, B.L. Otto-Bliesner,​ S.A. Marcott, J. Zhang, A. Wang, D. Noone, R. Tomas, J. Nusbaumer, T. Wong, A. Jahn, and C. Tabor, 2017: Reduced ENSO variability at the LGM revealed by an isotope-enabled Earth system model. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 6984-6992., n/a
Line 990: Line 1125:
   * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-14., https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s00382-018-4138-y   * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. How autumn Eurasian snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon: a numerical study. Climate Dynamics, pp.1-14., https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s00382-018-4138-y
     * The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon (EAWM) are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM, and snow anomalies over the MPV region can affect EAWM through a positive feedback process.     * The possible mechanisms by which Eurasian autumn snow anomalies affect east asian winter monsoon (EAWM) are investigated by numerical experiments with a coupled general circulation model and its atmospheric general circulation model component. Mongolian Plateau and Vicinity (MPV, 40°-55°N, 80°-120°E) is the key region for autumn snow anomalies to affect EAWM, and snow anomalies over the MPV region can affect EAWM through a positive feedback process.
 +
 +  * Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M. (2013). Mid-Holocene PMIP3/CMIP5 model results: Intercomparison for the South American Monsoon System. The Holocene, Vol 23, Issue 12, 1915-1920., 10.1177/​0959683613505336
 +    * This paper contains an unpdated proxy compilation for South American Monsoon System during the Mid-Holocene,​ and also a data-model comparison using the PMIP3 models.
 +
 +  * Oster, J. L., Ibarra, D. E., Winnick, M. J., & Maher, K. (2015). Steering of westerly storms over western North America at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Geoscience, 8(3), 201., 10.1038/​ngeo2365
 +    * Evaluation of model (PMIP3/​PMIP2) performance using paleoclimate data, constraints on precipitation change caused be climate forcing and P-E changes observed using paleoclimate records.
 +
 +  * Ibarra, D. E., Oster, J. L., Winnick, M. J., Caves Rugenstein, J. K., Byrne, M. P., & Chamberlain,​ C. P. (2018). Warm and cold wet states in the western United States during the Pliocene-Pleistocene. Geology, 46(4), 355-358., 10.1130/​G39962.1
 +    * Water cycle and regional moisture energy balance budget change constrained by geologic/​paleoclimate data and PMIP models in semi-arid region.
 +
 +  * R D'​Agostino,​ J Bader, S Bordoni, D Ferreira, J Jungclaus (2019): Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Response to Mid-Holocene Orbital Forcing and Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters 46 (3), 1591-1601, ​ https://​doi.org/​10.1029/​2018GL081589
 +    * Mechanisms driving monsoon response to midHolocene orbital forcing and rcp8.5 greenhouse-induced global warming scenario are different. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming, the weaker response of the African, Indian, and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid-Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response. This process-oriented study takes an important step toward improving our understanding of monsoon dynamics, quantifying the important role of atmospheric circulation changes in monsoonal precipitation changes by comparing and contrasting past and future climates. Our results highlight that mean surface warming and interhemispheric contrast in surface warming are poor indicators of the monsoonal precipitation response. Rather, the monsoon response is constrained by the integrated energy balance, which accounts for changes at the surface as well as at the top of the atmosphere. This explains why the mid-Holocene does not represent an analogue for future warming.
 +
 +  * Sánchez-Goñi,​ M.F., Bard, E., Landais, A., Rossignol, L., d'​Errico,​ F. (2013). Air-sea temperature decoupling in Western Europe during the last interglacial/​glacial transition. Nature Geoscience 6 , 837-841, DOI : 10.1038/​ngeo1924
 +    * In contrast with periods of relatively stable global ice volume (e.g. present-day interglacial),​ periods of ice-sheet growth are marked by a decoupling between eastern North Atlantic warming and European cooling. This configuration allows a northward shift of the westerlies bringing humidity to the high northern latitudes.
 +
 +  * Zorzi, C., Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Anupama, K., Prasad, S., Hanquiez, V., Johnson, J., Giosan, L. (2015) Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, HeinrichStadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition. Quaternary Science Reviews 125, 50-60., doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quascirev.2015.06.009
 +    * Insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation,​ but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric teleconnections to remote phenomena in the North Atlantic (e.g. amount of sea-ice or iceberg discharges),​ Eurasia or the Indian Ocean.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Rodrigues, T., Hodell, D.A., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Alonso-Garcia,​ M., Hernandez-Almeida,​ I., Desprat, S., Ferretti, P. (2016) Tropically-driven climate shifts in southwestern Europe during MIS 19, a low excentricity interglacial. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 448, 81-93., http://​dx.doi.org/​10.1016/​j.epsl.2016.05.018
 +    * MIS 19, the best orbital analogue to our present interglacial,​ is marked by low latitude-driven 5000-yr cycles of drying and cooling in the western Mediterranean region, along with warmth in the subtropical gyre related to the fourth harmonic of precession. The discrepancy between the dominant cyclicity observed during MIS1, 2500-yr, and that of MIS19, 5000-yr, challenges the similar duration of the Holocene and MIS19c interglacials under natural boundary conditions.
 +
 +  * Oliveira, D., Desprat, S., Yin, Q., Naughton, F., Trigo, R., Rodrigues, T., Abrantes, F., Sánchez Goñi, M.F. (2018). Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Climate Dynamics 51, 667-686, doi:​10.1007/​s00382-017-3948-7
 +    * Data-model comparison reveals that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the best orbital analogues to our present interglacial are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Ferretti, P., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Rodrigues, T., Alonso-Garcia,​ M., Rodriguez-Tovar,​ F.J.,  Dorador, J., Desprat, S. (2019). Pronounced northward shift of the westerlies during MIS 17 leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 511, 117-129., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.epsl.2019.01.032.
 +    * During MIS 17 (700 ka), a cold interglacial characterized by the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentrations of the last 800,000 years, the Iberian Peninsula was paradoxically marked by the maximum in the Mediterranean forest expansion indicating strong winter precipitation and summer warmth. These data indicate a decoupling between global and regional climates. This work also highlights the important contribution of the westerlies leading to the strong 100-kyr ice age cycles. These atmospheric changes remain, however, a key area of uncertainty in past and future climate model simulations.
 +
 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Harrison, S.P. and ACER contributors (2017). The ACER pollen and charcoal database : a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period. Earth System Science Data, 9, 679-695., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​essd-9-679-2017
 +    * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century.
 +
 +  * A.Kislov. On the interpretation of century-millennium-scale variations of the Black Sea level during the first quarter of the Holocene. ​ Quaternary International. Volume 465, Part A, 2018, Pages 99-104., https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2016.09.008
 +    *  model-data, and data syntheses
 +
 +  * Kislov A. The interpretation of secular Caspian Sea level records during the Holocene ​ Quaternary International,​ 2016, vol. 409,  39-43 , https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2015.07.026
 +    *  data syntheses :
 +
 +  * Yanko-Hombach,​ V., Kislov, A., Late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level dynamics in the Caspian and Black Seas: Data synthesis and Paradoxical interpretations,​ Quaternary International (2017) , https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.quaint.2017.11.030
 +    * model-data, and data syntheses
 +
 +  * Kislov A. 2018 Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level. ​ Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 43, No 10, 679-685 ​ , 10.3103/​S1068373918100072
 +    * data syntheses
  
  
 ===== Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate ===== ===== Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate =====
  
-Number of selected references: **12**+Number of selected references: **13**
  
   * Stevenson, S, J. Overpeck, J. T. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, B. Otto-Bliesner,​ T. R. Ault, G. Loope, J. Cole, 2018: Climate Variability,​ Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Climate Extremes, Journal of Climate, 31, 4309-4327., n/a   * Stevenson, S, J. Overpeck, J. T. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, B. Otto-Bliesner,​ T. R. Ault, G. Loope, J. Cole, 2018: Climate Variability,​ Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Climate Extremes, Journal of Climate, 31, 4309-4327., n/a
Line 1026: Line 1203:
     * We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructionsover the Common Era (CE) and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE.     * We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructionsover the Common Era (CE) and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE.
  
-  * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2017. How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?. Climate dynamics, 48(7-8), pp.2557-2568., ​DOI 10.1007/​s00382-016-3222-4+  * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2017. How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?. Climate dynamics, 48(7-8), pp.2557-2568., ​https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s00382-016-3222-4
     * This work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia(TEA, 30°-50°N, 110°-140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We used physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the winter extremely cold days over over TEA.     * This work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia(TEA, 30°-50°N, 110°-140°E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We used physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the winter extremely cold days over over TEA.
  
-  * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. Predictability and prediction of the total number of winter extremely cold days over China. Climate Dynamics, 50(5-6), pp.1769-1784., ​DOI 10.1007/​s00382-017-3720-z+  * Luo, X. and Wang, B., 2018. Predictability and prediction of the total number of winter extremely cold days over China. Climate Dynamics, 50(5-6), pp.1769-1784., ​https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s00382-017-3720-z
     * The present study uses physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the total number of extremely cold days (NECD) over China.The physical mechanisms by which the autumn Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and tropical- North Pacific SST anomalies affect winter NECD over the Northeast and Main China are discussed.     * The present study uses physics-based empirical models (PEMs) to explore the sources and limits of the seasonal predictability in the total number of extremely cold days (NECD) over China.The physical mechanisms by which the autumn Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and tropical- North Pacific SST anomalies affect winter NECD over the Northeast and Main China are discussed.
 +
 +  * Morrill, C., Meador, E., Livneh, B., Liefert, D.T., Shuman, B.N. 2019. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains. Climate Dynamics. , 10.1007/​s00382-019-04633-3
 +    * We used several hydrologic forward models in a form of downscaling to quantitatively compare PMIP3 simulations with lake level records. We found that the severity of mid-Holocene drought in western/​central North America about 6,000 years ago is consistent with local winter precipitation reductions of up to 50%, and that PMIP3 models fail to reproduce the severity of this drought.
  
  
 ===== Chapter 12: Climate change information for regional impacts and risk assessment ===== ===== Chapter 12: Climate change information for regional impacts and risk assessment =====
  
-Number of selected references: **12**+Number of selected references: **15**
  
   * Mares, C., I. Mares, H. Huebener, M. Mihailescu, U. Cubasch, and P. Stanciu, 2014: A Hidden Markov Model Applied to the Daily Spring Precipitation over the Danube Basin. Advances in Meteorology,​ Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 237247, 11 pp, dx.doi.org/​10.1155/​2014/​237247   * Mares, C., I. Mares, H. Huebener, M. Mihailescu, U. Cubasch, and P. Stanciu, 2014: A Hidden Markov Model Applied to the Daily Spring Precipitation over the Danube Basin. Advances in Meteorology,​ Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 237247, 11 pp, dx.doi.org/​10.1155/​2014/​237247
Line 1072: Line 1252:
   * Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences,​ 11, 6017-6027. doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014,​ doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014a   * Martin Calvo, M., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., 2014. Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial-interglacial contrast. Biogeosciences,​ 11, 6017-6027. doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014,​ doi:​10.5194/​bg-11-6017-2014a
     * Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected ​ fire regimes through altering productivity and hence fuel loads. By analogy, both rising CO2 and climate must be considered as risk factors for wildfire.     * Demonstrates that changing CO2 since the Last Glacial Maximum has affected ​ fire regimes through altering productivity and hence fuel loads. By analogy, both rising CO2 and climate must be considered as risk factors for wildfire.
 +
 +  * Morrill, C., Meador, E., Livneh, B., Liefert, D.T., Shuman, B.N. 2019. Quantitative model-data comparison of mid-Holocene lake-level change in the central Rocky Mountains. Climate Dynamics. , 10.1007/​s00382-019-04633-3
 +    * We used several hydrologic forward models in a form of downscaling to quantitatively compare PMIP3 simulations with lake level records. We found that the severity of mid-Holocene drought in western/​central North America about 6,000 years ago is consistent with local winter precipitation reductions of up to 50%, and that PMIP3 models fail to reproduce the severity of this drought.
 +
 +  * Oliveira, D., Desprat, S., Yin, Q., Naughton, F., Trigo, R., Rodrigues, T., Abrantes, F., Sánchez Goñi, M.F. (2018). Unraveling the forcings controlling the vegetation and climate of the best orbital analogues for the present interglacial in SW Europe. Climate Dynamics 51, 667-686, doi:​10.1007/​s00382-017-3948-7
 +    * Data-model comparison reveals that the SW Iberian forest dynamics over the best orbital analogues to our present interglacial are mostly coupled to changes in winter precipitation mainly controlled by precession, CO2 playing a negligible role. In contrast, the reconstructed lower forest optimum at MIS 19c is not reproduced by the simulations probably due to the lack of Eurasian ice sheets and its related feedbacks in the model.
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 +  * Sánchez Goñi, M.F., Desprat, S., Daniau, A.-L., Bassinot, F., Polanco-Martinez,​ J.M., Harrison, S.P. and ACER contributors (2017). The ACER pollen and charcoal database : a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period. Earth System Science Data, 9, 679-695., https://​doi.org/​10.5194/​essd-9-679-2017
 +    * This global vegetation and fire data compilation shows the regional response to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century.