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wg:ptof:analyses [2019/05/16 15:17] brierley [Planned P2FVar Analyses] |
wg:ptof:analyses [2019/09/16 11:00] (current) brierley [Tier 2 & 3 Papers (planned for Dec 2019)] |
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| //Note for proper assessment in IPCC AR6 papers should be submitted by September 2019, and certainly no later than the end of December 2019 to allow for citation in IPCC AR6.// | //Note for proper assessment in IPCC AR6 papers should be submitted by September 2019, and certainly no later than the end of December 2019 to allow for citation in IPCC AR6.// | ||
| - | ===== Tier 2 & 3 Papers (as of May 2019) ===== | + | ===== Tier 2 & 3 Papers (planned for Dec 2019) ===== |
| - | | Subject ^ Experiment(s) ^ Contact ^ Working Group ^ Notes ^ | + | | Experiment(s) |
| - | ^ Interglacial warmth | + | ^ lig127k & midHolocene | Interglacial warmth | [[ottobli@ucar.edu|Bette Otto-Bleisner]] | QUIGS | //meeting in July to write// | |
| - | ^ Large-scale features | + | ^ midPliocene-eoi400 | Large-scale features | [[earamh@leeds.ac.uk|Alan Haywood (Leeds)]] | PlioMIP | //1st from [[https:// |
| - | ^ Vegetation/ | + | ^ midPliocene-eoi400 | Vegetation/ |
| - | ^ Global patterns and Benchmarking | lgm | Masa Kageyama & Sandy Harrison | | + | ^ lgm | Global patterns and Benchmarking | Sandy Harrison & Masa Kageyama |
| - | ^ ENSO data-model comparison | + | ^ midHolocene | benchmarking | [[c.brierley@ucl.ac.uk|Chris Brierley (UCL)]] |
| + | ^ // | ||
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| - **How do the dynamics of the monsoons change throughout the Holocene?** This will mainly analyse Holocene transient simulations coming out of France and Germany, and compare them to proxy records (mainly speleothems). There was a focus on low-frequency variability. This effort is closely connected to the PACMEDY consortium, and lead by Roberta D' | - **How do the dynamics of the monsoons change throughout the Holocene?** This will mainly analyse Holocene transient simulations coming out of France and Germany, and compare them to proxy records (mainly speleothems). There was a focus on low-frequency variability. This effort is closely connected to the PACMEDY consortium, and lead by Roberta D' | ||
| - | - **Methodological developments for emergent constraints**. Thinking about priors for Bayesian analysis. This effort was spearheded by Stockholm in combination with BlueSkiesResearch. | + | - **Methodological developments for emergent constraints**. Thinking about priors for Bayesian analysis. This effort was spearheded by Stockholm in combination with BlueSkiesResearch. |
| - **Transient behaviour of AMOC**. This group had two possible foci, the last millennium simulations or other Holocene transient runs. There is so far no multi-model paper focused on AMOC behaviour in all the past1000 runs. Elements of this research have been published elsewhere though (say in single model papers) and there are data availability issues. A paper comparing transient runs performed outside of PMIP to proxy data shall be worked on (led by UCL with MPI and IPSL involved). | - **Transient behaviour of AMOC**. This group had two possible foci, the last millennium simulations or other Holocene transient runs. There is so far no multi-model paper focused on AMOC behaviour in all the past1000 runs. Elements of this research have been published elsewhere though (say in single model papers) and there are data availability issues. A paper comparing transient runs performed outside of PMIP to proxy data shall be worked on (led by UCL with MPI and IPSL involved). | ||
| - | - The role of circulation | + | - **Local, interannual variability**. This built on some work by Chris and Kira analysing |
| + | == El Nino - Southern Oscillation == | ||
| + | There has been much work looking at ENSO changes in different experiments (see review by [[https:// | ||
| + | |||
| + | //Potential Research Outline...// | ||
| + | - Introduction and literature review | ||
| + | - Model Evaluation (piControl or historical vs. obs) | ||
| + | - climatological temperature and precipitation patterns [ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - ENSO composite pattern [obs., ens. mn., ensemble bias] | ||
| + | - Nino3.4 std dev. in piControl and historical runs | ||
| + | - Mean state changes | ||
| + | - SST changes in the Tropical Pacific [all expts, ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - Change in annual cycle in Tropical Pacific [all expts, ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - Nino3.4 changes | ||
| + | - Barchart showing each std dev. changes in individual simulations | ||
| + | - Ensemble mean changes in power spectra | ||
| + | - Patterns and impacts | ||
| + | - precipitation ENSO composite patterns [ens. mn.; should these be normalised to remove amplitude effect?] | ||
| + | - temperature ENSO composite patterns [ens. mn.; should these be normalised to remove amplitude effect?] | ||
| + | - Diversity | ||
| + | - CVDP, and therefore [[http:// | ||
| + | - Could use the [[https:// | ||
| + | - Discussion | ||
| + | - Projection onto mean state changes (El Nino-like?) | ||
| + | - Is there a consistent relationship with changes in the annual cycle across past2future states? | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Other efforts we're aware of... ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | * **Holocene ENSO.** There is an effort by the paleo-ENSO community to collate together different proxy records of ENSO. This will look at reconstructed variability in different regions of the Pacific. Efforts so far have compared these to non-PMIP transient simulations, | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | === A possible North Atlantic Oscillation === | ||
| + | **//Chris currently has an MSc student looking at this, but we will need help to convert into a paper//** | ||
| + | This would focus on describing changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation across past and future equilibrium simulations. It would use PMIP3/CMIP5 and whatever is available for PMIP4/ | ||
| + | //Potential Research Outline...// | ||
| + | - Introduction and literature review | ||
| + | - Model Evaluation (piControl or historical vs. obs) | ||
| + | - climatological psl gradient [ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - NAO pattern [ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - surface temperature and precipitation impacts [ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - Mean state changes | ||
| + | - Sea ice edge and temperature changes over the North Atlantic in [all expts, ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - Changes in temperature gradients over N. Atl. [all expts, ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - Sea level pressure gradients [all expts, ens. mn.] | ||
| + | - NAO Amplitude changes | ||
| + | - Barchart showing each individual simulation changes | ||
| + | - NAO pattern | ||
| + | - Ensemble mean changes in the NAO pattern (?needs renormalisation after [[https:// | ||
| + | - NAO impacts | ||
| + | - Ensemble mean changes in precipitation teleconnections | ||
| + | - Ensemble mean changes in surface temperature teleconnections | ||
| + | - Discussion | ||
| + | - Projection of midHolocene mean European temperatures onto NAO patterns | ||
| + | - Relationships with NAO variability and sea ice cover | ||
| ===== Personal Contributions ===== | ===== Personal Contributions ===== | ||