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wg:ptof:analyses [2019/05/17 07:41] brierley [Planned P2FVar Analyses] |
wg:ptof:analyses [2019/06/25 10:06] brierley [Planned P2FVar Analyses] |
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//Note for proper assessment in IPCC AR6 papers should be submitted by September 2019, and certainly no later than the end of December 2019 to allow for citation in IPCC AR6.// | //Note for proper assessment in IPCC AR6 papers should be submitted by September 2019, and certainly no later than the end of December 2019 to allow for citation in IPCC AR6.// | ||
- | ===== Tier 2 & 3 Papers (as of May 2019) ===== | + | ===== Tier 2 & 3 Papers (planned for Dec 2019) ===== |
| Experiment(s) ^ Subject ^ Contact ^ Working Group ^ Notes ^ | | Experiment(s) ^ Subject ^ Contact ^ Working Group ^ Notes ^ | ||
- | ^ lig127k | Interglacial warmth | [[ottobli@ucar.edu|Bette Otto-Bleisner]] | QUIGS | //meeting in July to write// | | + | ^ lig127k |
^ midPliocene-eoi400 | Large-scale features | [[earamh@leeds.ac.uk|Alan Haywood (Leeds)]] | PlioMIP | //1st from [[https:// | ^ midPliocene-eoi400 | Large-scale features | [[earamh@leeds.ac.uk|Alan Haywood (Leeds)]] | PlioMIP | //1st from [[https:// | ||
^ midPliocene-eoi400 | Vegetation/ | ^ midPliocene-eoi400 | Vegetation/ | ||
^ lgm | Global patterns and Benchmarking | Sandy Harrison & Masa Kageyama | Data | // using [[https:// | ^ lgm | Global patterns and Benchmarking | Sandy Harrison & Masa Kageyama | Data | // using [[https:// | ||
- | ^ midHolocene | **no collaborative paper underway** :-( | - | - | - | | + | ^ midHolocene | bnechmarking |
^ // | ^ // | ||
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- **How do the dynamics of the monsoons change throughout the Holocene?** This will mainly analyse Holocene transient simulations coming out of France and Germany, and compare them to proxy records (mainly speleothems). There was a focus on low-frequency variability. This effort is closely connected to the PACMEDY consortium, and lead by Roberta D' | - **How do the dynamics of the monsoons change throughout the Holocene?** This will mainly analyse Holocene transient simulations coming out of France and Germany, and compare them to proxy records (mainly speleothems). There was a focus on low-frequency variability. This effort is closely connected to the PACMEDY consortium, and lead by Roberta D' | ||
- | - **Methodological developments for emergent constraints**. Thinking about priors for Bayesian analysis. This effort was spearheded by Stockholm in combination with BlueSkiesResearch. | + | - **Methodological developments for emergent constraints**. Thinking about priors for Bayesian analysis. This effort was spearheded by Stockholm in combination with BlueSkiesResearch. |
- **Transient behaviour of AMOC**. This group had two possible foci, the last millennium simulations or other Holocene transient runs. There is so far no multi-model paper focused on AMOC behaviour in all the past1000 runs. Elements of this research have been published elsewhere though (say in single model papers) and there are data availability issues. A paper comparing transient runs performed outside of PMIP to proxy data shall be worked on (led by UCL with MPI and IPSL involved). | - **Transient behaviour of AMOC**. This group had two possible foci, the last millennium simulations or other Holocene transient runs. There is so far no multi-model paper focused on AMOC behaviour in all the past1000 runs. Elements of this research have been published elsewhere though (say in single model papers) and there are data availability issues. A paper comparing transient runs performed outside of PMIP to proxy data shall be worked on (led by UCL with MPI and IPSL involved). | ||
- | - **Local, interannual variability**. This built on some work by Chris and Kira analysing changes in interannual variability across PMIP3 simulations. An additional stream of analysis showed that the modes of climate variability appear fairly consistent across multiple climate | + | - **Local, interannual variability**. This built on some work by Chris and Kira analysing changes in interannual variability across PMIP3 simulations. An additional stream of analysis showed that the modes of climate variability appear fairly consistent across multiple climate |
- | Other efforts we're aware of... | + | == El Nino - Southern Oscillation == |
- | * **Holocene ENSO.** There is an effort by the paleo-ENSO community to collate together different proxy records of ENSO. This will look at reconstructed variability in different regions of the Pacific. Efforts so far have compared these to non-PMIP transient simulations, | + | |
- | ==== Potential P2FVar Analyses ==== | + | There has been much work looking at ENSO changes in different experiments (see review by [[https:// |
- | === El Nino - Southern Oscillation === | ||
- | There has been much work looking at ENSO changes in different experiments (see review by [[https:// | ||
//Potential Research Outline...// | //Potential Research Outline...// | ||
- Introduction and literature review | - Introduction and literature review | ||
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- Is there a consistent relationship with changes in the annual cycle across past2future states? | - Is there a consistent relationship with changes in the annual cycle across past2future states? | ||
- | === North Atlantic Oscillation === | + | ==== Other efforts we're aware of... ==== |
+ | |||
+ | * **Holocene ENSO.** There is an effort by the paleo-ENSO community to collate together different proxy records of ENSO. This will look at reconstructed variability in different regions of the Pacific. Efforts so far have compared these to non-PMIP transient simulations, | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | === A possible | ||
+ | **//Chris currently has an MSc student looking at this, but we will need help to convert into a paper//** | ||
This would focus on describing changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation across past and future equilibrium simulations. It would use PMIP3/CMIP5 and whatever is available for PMIP4/ | This would focus on describing changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation across past and future equilibrium simulations. It would use PMIP3/CMIP5 and whatever is available for PMIP4/ | ||
//Potential Research Outline...// | //Potential Research Outline...// |