Past2Future: insights from a constantly varying past workshop

A small workshop organised on behalf of PMIP4, which we've imaginatively decided to also call “Past2Future: insights from a constantly varying past”. It will be focused on analysing the PMIP4/CMIP6 simulations and providing some preliminary multi-model, multi-period results on IPCC timescales. It will Hosted in London with Chris Brierley as the local organiser.

PMIP4/CMIP6 is using the same models to simulate several past climates, as well as the future. This gives us the possibility of using the past climate responses to provide quantitative insights into the projections: either through exploration and testing of the mechanisms, or as observational constraints. With the availability of the new iteration of past and future simulations, there is a need to focus on the application and expansion of these methods.

  • Accelerate efforts to perform multi-model, multi-period research on CMIP6/PMIP4
  • Update PMIP3 analyses
  • Provide a collaborative space for writing timely outputs (esp. given upcoming IPCC deadlines)


Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
9 am Logistics for analyses Group work Group analyses Overall thoughts
10 am Welcome Potential issues Devise initial tests Group analyses Discussion
Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee
11 am Wider context Poster Session Tackle proof of concept analysis Finish off analyses Future actions
Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch
2 pm Assets and tools Sharing of ideas for potential analyses Time off Creation of group presentations Say goodbyes
Coffee Coffee Time off Coffee
3:30-5:30 pm Possible research topics Coalesce into groups for targeted analyses Time off Presentations of initial results

Presentation sessions

There is a live stream of this day at the workshop available to view on youtube. The times in brackets below are the approximates start times of the presentation within the feed.

Wider Context
  • 11:00 - PMIP4 and its current status (1h01m)
  • 11:30 - IPCC AR6, and other palaeoclimate initiatives (Darrell Kaufman) (1h40m)
Assets and tools
  • 1:30pm - Available data (Sandy Harrison) (3h27)
  • 2:00 - Statistical approaches (James Annan) (4h25)
  • 2:30 - Long transient runs (Pascale Braconnot) (4h53)
Possible research topics
  • 3:30pm - Climate Sensitivity (Jules Hargreaves) (5h42)
  • 3:50 - Monsoons (Pedro Dias) (6h04)
  • 4:10 - Variability (Kira Rehfeld) (6h37)
  • 4:30 - AMOC (David Thornalley) (was deferred to Tuesday :-/)
  • ~5:00 - ENSO (Sam Stevenson) (7h05)
Logistics of analyses
  • Outstanding methodological issues (e.g. seasonality)
  • Introduction to UCL cluster
  • porting of non-CMIP6/CMORized data onto it
Workshop dates/time

10am Monday 13th May 2019 - 2pm Friday 17th May 2019


The workshop will take place in the Pearson Building at University College London. The Pearson Building is accessed from just inside UCL's main gates off Gower St. There are maps and public transport directions, and the postcode to feed into your phone is WC1E 6BT. We will mainly be in Room G07, but also have booked the teaching cluster (Room 110A).


London has a silly quantity of hotels. The Wesley hotel is probably the one which is the shortest walk from the workshop venue. There are several budget hotels as part of the Imperial Group that are in Bloomsbury (but please do check their reviews) and some hostels nearby. The public transport system in London is pretty effective, and you will find cheaper accommodation slightly further out (say through AirBnB). London travel is cheapest through an “Oyster Card”, which you can buy in advance from this link. You probably want to stay in Zones 1-2: the closest tube stops to UCL are Warren St and Euston Square.


There is no registration fee and lunches during the workshop will be provided. Travel and accommodation to London is expensive enough. There will be a workshop dinner on the Tuesday evening in a nearby curry house, whilst you will need for pay this yourself it'll be fairly cheap.

Abstract/Proposal submission

This is a small workshop, with at most 30 attendees, so we would like you to apply to attend. The workshop will have poster presentations combined with group-working. This application will therefore have two parts to it (a) an abstract of the research you'd like to present on your poster and (b) a couple of sentences about the questions you'd like to address during an initial analysis of the PMIP4 ensemble. These abstracts and proposals should be submitted by 1st February via an email to Chris Brierley.


Please email Chris Brierley for further details

Institution Country
Chris Brierley University College London UK
Jules Hargreaves BlueSkiesResearch Yorkshire
Pascale Braconnot LSCE France
Sandy Harrison Reading UK
Julien Cretat LSCE FR
Nav Sagoo Stockholm SE
Martin Renoult Stockholm SE
Xiaoxu Shi AWI DE
James Annan BlueSkiesResearch Yorkshire
Juan Lora Yale US
Johann Jungclaus MPI DE
Darrell Kaufman N. Arizona Uni. US
Roberta D'Agostino MPI DE
Kira Rehfeld Heidelberg DE
Raphael Hebert AWI DE
Pedro Dias Sao Paulo BR
Bruno Turcq IRD FR
Marcus Lofverstrom U. Arizona US
Andrew Schurer Edinburgh UK
Celia Martin Puertes Royal Holloway UK
David Thornalley UCL UK
Manuel Arroyo-Kalin UCL UK
Peter Spooner UCL UK
Damian Oyarzun UCL UK
Anni Zhao UCL UK
Basil Davis Lausanne CH
Pearse Buchanan Liverpool UK
Charlie Williams Reading UK
  • wg/ptof/uclworkshop.txt
  • Last modified: 2019/05/21 22:42
  • by brierley