Past to Future - Meetings

This was a small workshop organised by the PMIP4 working group, which was imaginatively also called “Past2Future: insights from a constantly varying past”. It focused on analysing the PMIP4/CMIP6 simulations and providing some preliminary multi-model, multi-period results on IPCC timescales. It was hosted in London with Chris Brierley as the local organiser. See the workshop webpage for more details.

Montreal, Canada, 4-7 May 2015

PP32A: Using Paleoclimate Modeling and Data to Constrain Future Predictions Conveners: Gavin A. Schmidt, Bruno Tremblay, Julia C. Hargreaves

https://agu.confex.com/agu/ja2015/meetingapp.cgi#Session/6882

Gavin A. Schmidt Richard Zeebe Richard P. Guyette Aixue Hu Mark Chandler Allegra LeGrande Bruno Tremblay Shaun Lovejoy

Discussions and post-session lunch.

Original Session CL4.9, “Using paleoclimate modelling and data to learn about the future” conveners Julia Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Gavin Schmidt, merged with CL1.8 to become: “Paleoclimates from the Cretaceous to the Holocene: learning from numerical experiments and model-data comparisons, and using paleoclimate modelling and data to learn about the future”, conveners: Masa Kageyama, André Paul, Dan Lunt, Michal Kucera, Julia Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Gavin A. Schmidt. With 10 abstracts from CL4.9, three were oral presentations, and the rest were presented as posters.

Vienna, Austria,
Wed, 15 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / 13:30–17:00 / Room Y9, 17:30
Wed, 15 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Yellow Posters

Invited orals:
Paleoclimate diagnostics: consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates. Kenji Izumi et al.
Sensitivity of Southern Hemisphere circulation to LGM and 4xCO2 climates. Maisa Rojas
Oral:
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850-2100 CE. Flavio Lehner et al.
Posters:
Is the PMIP ensemble large enough? Julia C. Hargreaves and James D. Annan
Climate response to astronomical forcing: a resonance scenario vs. a synchronization scenario. Arianna Marchionne
Dominant role of atmospheric dynamics for North Pacific Holocene SST trends: Validating models. Gerrit Lohmann et al.
Late Quaternary and Future Biome Simulations for Alaska and Eastern Russia. Amy Hendricks et al.
Relationship between El Niño and the hydrological cycle of tropical regions in different climatic contexts. Marion Saint-Lu et al.
Paleodynamics of large closed lakes as a standard for climate modeling data verification. Alexander Kislov
Reconstruction of the South Atlantic Dipole Index. Ilana Wainer et al.

There was another P2F relevent session, CL4.12/HS7.9, The hydrological cycle under past, present and future climate change (co-organized) Conveners: Michael Byrne, Robin Chadwick, Florent Brient, Charline Marzin. Included an invited talk by Pascale Braconnot, “Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective”, which included quite a strong P2F perspective. But all the other talks in the session were on present climate. The poster session included, “Robust relationships in past and future simulation: atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle over the tropics Kenji Izumi et al” and “Early Eocene changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events Matthew Carmichael et al”

Namur, Belgium, 23-30 May 2014 The second PMIP3 general meeting http://www.climate.be/pmip3/

Everything about PMIP3. Mostly multi-model science results and workshop reports and planning sessions.

These two links include most of the attendees Talks: http://www.climate.be/pmip3/listtalks.php Posters: http://www.climate.be/pmip3/posters.php

Talks by Julia Hargreaves, Gavin Schmidt and Steve Sherwood. Thursday lunchtime planning meeting with Julia Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Masa Kageyama, Dan Lunt, Gavin Schmidt and Steve Sherwood with aim of forming a clear focus for the group. Produced version 2.0 of the Aims and Scope.

Rutgers, NJ, USA, January 17-18, 2013 DIMACS workshop on “Geological data fusion: Tackling the statistical challenges of interpreting past environmental change” http://dimacs.rutgers.edu/Workshops/Geological/

Basically, it was all about paleoclimate and statistics, but a bit about future climate too.

Julia Hargreaves, Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Anchukaitis

Gavin agreed that it would be nice to write down what we think each interval in the past that we model might be able to tell us about future climate. In fact he seemed to offer to put up a skeleton outline, based on a paper he wrote a while back! This will go on the “What We Know” page.

Goa, India, 13-16 February, 2013

http://www.pages-osm.org/

• drink some tea (or whatever)
• exchange ideas about what the working group might get up to in the future

Pascale Braconnot, Eric Wolff, Anders Carlson, Andre Berger, Quizhen Yin, Andrew Schurer

A lunchtime meeting was held in the sun. Some things were discussed. The minutes are here.

Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2013

CL4.4

Using paleoclimate modelling and data to learn about the future Conveners: Julia C. Hargreaves, Michel Crucifix, Gavin A. Schmidt

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2013/session/12287

Julia Hargreaves, Masa Kageyama, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt

A half hour meeting with about 20 attendees was held in Y9 on Monday lunchtime. Minutes of the meeting

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